Oil Windfalls and a Conditional Political Resource Curse: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Brazil
With Rikhil R. Bhavnani and Noam Lupu.
Overview
Do natural resource windfalls affect democratic outcomes?
We argue that the effect of such revenues on democratic outcomes is conditioned by the strength of political institutions. Where institutions are weak, natural resource revenues are diverted towards clientelistic practices, which increase incumbent reelection rates. Where institutions are strong, we expect no such effect. To test this theory, we exploit a natural experiment in Brazil by which municipalities are allocated off-shore oil royalties as-if randomly. We confirm that oil resources boost incumbent reelection rates where institutions are weak. We trace the mechanisms through which reelection rates increase: in municipalities with poor institutions, incumbents use resources to increase public employment, spending on administration, election campaign expenditures, and turnout rates. Together, these clientelistic practices increase incumbent reelection rates. Our argument provides a principled way in which to reconcile the divergent findings of the political resource curse literature.
My Work
Selected Research
My work has appeared in Nature, International Studies Quarterly, and other outlets.
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